市场预计今年信贷增量7.5万亿左右 资金压力小

本文摘自昆明中国国际旅行社
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据中国之声《央广新闻》报道，中国人民银行日前公布的2010年金融统计数据报告显示，2010年，人民币贷款增加7.95万亿元，其中12月份，人民币贷款增加4807亿元，同比多增1007亿元。全年新增信贷超标4500亿。

根据同业交换数据显示，四大国有银行去年12月新增贷款约1600亿元。这和整体信贷数据一对比意味，中小银行12月新增信贷达到3200亿元左右的规模，占当月信贷规模的近七成。而按照以往惯例，国有大行往往是放贷的主力。建设银行研究部高级经理赵庆明称，造成此种现象的原因之一可能是：去年年初确定7.5万亿信贷规模后，监管层对大型国有银行有明确的硬约束指标，而中小银行则不面临硬约束问题。

去年的信贷超标对于今年稳定货币政策与控制通胀是不利的，据此有机构预测进入2011年一季度，再次面临银行为创造利息收入而超发信贷的可能,引发前几月信贷发行的巨量增长。基于此，央行有可能再度对部分信贷发放过猛的银行上调差额存款准备金率。同时2011年央行仍存在上调存款准备金率2-3次的可能,上调水平为1%-1.5%,对银行业回收资金6000-9000亿元。

本月初央行的工作会议上并没有就今年的信贷增量确定一个具体的目标，而代之以要保持贷款总量合理适度增长。银行信贷增长要与实现社会经济发展主要目标相吻合，特别要考虑经济增长目标和通胀控制目标，从反危机特殊时期的非常态应对，转向合理适度的增长。因为没有设定具体增长数量，市场对此也是有种种猜测。有银监会内部人士表示，今年的对银行的信贷控制跟去年有所不同，从以往的按月份来监控变成按照星期来监控，就是商业银行每周都要向监管部门上报贷款数据，甚至会在非常时期进行按日考核，以此来防止商业银行超发贷款。但是由于今年是“十二五”的开局之年，由于实体经济的需要，市场还是预计今年的信贷增量可能在7-7.5万亿之间，所以虽然货币政策转向稳健，流动性有所收紧， 但很多专家都预计今年市场上的资金压力不会太大。(记者梁盛)

（中广网 梁盛）

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