argu42

42.The following appeared in a proposal from the economic minister of the
country of Paraterra.

"In order to strengthen its lagging economy, last year the government of
the nearby country of Bellegea began an advertising campaign to promote
ecologically sound tourism (ecotourism). This year the number of foreign
visitors arriving at Bellegea's main airport doubled, and per capita
income in Bellegea increased by ten percent. To provide more income for
the population of Paraterra and also preserve the natural environment of
our tiny country, we too should begin to promote ecotourism. To ensure
that our advertising campaign is successful, we should hire the current
director of Bellegea's National Tourism Office as a consultant for the
campaign."

临近城市Bellegea的政府为促进其落后的经济，去年开展了一项对生态旅游的广告推广。今年到达Bellegea主要机场的外国游客数量翻了一番，人均收入增加了10％。为增加Paraterra居民的收入并保护我们有限国土的天然环境，我们也应该推广生态旅游。为保证我们广告策略的成功，我们应该雇佣Bellegea现任国家旅游局的主任来担任广告的顾问。

 

1.无因果，去年开展的生态旅游的广告推广和今年的外国游客数量翻一番以及人均收入的增加可能仅仅是时间上的先后关系罢了。可能是由于政府加强了管理，加大了投资力度，经济状况的改善等原因造成的。

2.即便是由于生态旅游的广告推广造成的，B和P城市的旅游经典不同，生态环境不同，地理位置不同等多种原因使得自P市推广生态旅游并不一定能够获得成功。

3.没有证据表明雇佣B主任能够保证广告策略的成功。B的成功可能只是因为B本身在生态旅游方面的优势，而主任只不过是照着计划执行而已。所以结论不成立。