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2008-10-31 14:25:13
America's election
Behind but unbowed
Oct 28th 2008 | NEW YORK
From Economist.com
John McCain thinks he can win, but too few voters agree
JOHN MCCAIN has survived against long odds before. But, despite a stubborn televised interview on Sunday October 26th, in which he touted a poll showing him just a few points behind Barack Obama in the race for the White House, soon he may have to tape up his windows to keep out bad news. , a website that aggregates poll results, suggests that the Republican is now behind Mr Obama by an average of just over seven percentage points. Other pollsters give Mr Obama a slightly smaller lead. , a betting website, indicates that those risking money on the election result believe that the Democrat has nearly a 90% chance of victory next week.
Mr McCain’s own schedule indicates the difficulties that he faces. He is appearing, almost entirely, in states that George Bush won in 2004. If he could hold all those states, he would replicate Mr Bush’s narrow victory. But he faces an onslaught from Mr Obama in states such as Iowa, Ohio and even Indiana. The Democrat tours such places while barely making an effort to defend states that are currently in his column. Mr McCain’s best shot may be triumphing in Pennsylvania, while limiting his losses elsewhere. But most polls show him behind by double digits in that state.
The best news for Mr McCain is that he discovered two genuinely effective arguments in his last debate against Mr Obama. He has since tried to drive them home on the stump. One is to emphasise how different he is from Mr Bush. He taunts Mr Obama by saying that if his rival wanted to run against Mr Bush, he should have done so in 2004 (thus reminding voters of his opponent’s youth and short service). He criticised the Bush administration harshly in a newspaper interview last week. Mr Obama has fired back, saying that in the Senate Mr McCain voted in favour of Mr Bush’s agenda 90% of the time.
The second of Mr McCain’s arguments has also gained some traction. Mr Obama’s comment to a plumber in Ohio that it would be good to “spread the wealth” in America may have cost him some support. Mr McCain is warning that his opponent would be unduly redistributive. The Republican wants to cut taxes on business and on capital gains, which he says would create more wealth. He supports keeping Mr Bush’s tax cuts even for the richest earners. His running-mate, Sarah Palin, has pleased core Republican supporters by calling Mr Obama “socialistic” in his thinking and voting. Mr Obama responds that he merely wants those making $250,000 or more to pay the tax-rates they did in the booming 1990s. Most Americans, though they do not like taxes, do not regard Mr Obama as a raging leftist, and the tactic smacks of the McCain-Palin ticket's desperation.
Perhaps the biggest indication of Mr McCain’s problems is given by early voting, which some states allow. Anecdotal evidence around the country shows unprecedentedly big numbers of people taking advantage of the opportunity. The Obama team has released numbers showing that more registered Democrats have turned out to vote early (relative to the Republicans) than in 2004, pointing to both greater motivation and the Obama team’s better organisation and mobilisation efforts. More striking, Zogby, a pollster, has Mr Obama winning by perhaps as much as 24 percentage points among early voters. And the more who vote early for Mr Obama the fewer doors his team have to knock on come election day, allowing them to concentrate resources on those yet to vote.
The early voting numbers show that there is intense interest in the election. Turnout will almost certainly be higher than America’s usual (dismal) showing. Mr McCain’s problem is that most enthusiasm is directed towards his opponent, and some Republicans are jumping ship. Mrs Palin's circle and Mr McCain's advisers are leaking criticism of each other to the press. She has endured an embarrassing flap over $150,000 spent on clothes for her since she became the vice-presidential candidate. Mr Bush’s former spokesman, Scott McClellan, has said that he would vote for Mr Obama.
Another blow was delivered at the weekend by the Anchorage Daily News. The most popular newspaper in Mrs Palin's home state thanked her for drawing attention to Alaska but endorsed Mr Obama instead. And Republicans suffered a further setback on Monday in their fight to stop the Democrats winning a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. Ted Stevens, a long-serving Alaskan senator, may well lose a bitter battle to retain his seat after his conviction on corruption charges over gifts he received from supporters.
The finger-pointing among Republican operatives, and the infighting among conservative pundits about the future of the movement, shows that even committed Republican partisans do not expect Mr McCain to win. Nevertheless Mr McCain seems still to believe strongly that he has every chance of emerging as the victor. But the circle of people that share his unfounded optimism seems to be tightening.
