2012年(464)
分类: Delphi
2012-05-19 14:48:29
Travel by ferry from Hong Kong to Shenzhen, in one of the regions that makes
China the workshop of the world, and an enormous billboard greets you: “Time is
Money, Efficiency is Life”.Seen from
market, all of things you will know.
Joerg Wuttke, a veteran industrialist
with the EU Chamber of Commerce in China, predicts that the cost to manufacture
in China could soar twofold or even threefold by 2020. AlixPartners, a
consultancy, offers this intriguing extrapolation: if China’s currency and
shipping costs were to rise by 5% annually and wages were to go up by 30% a
year, by 2015 it would be just as cheap to make things in North America as to
make them in China and ship them there (see chart). In reality, the convergence
will probably be slower. But the trend is clear.
Kolcraft’s experience is
typical. When the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai asked its members
recently about their biggest challenges, 91% mentioned “rising costs”.
Corruption and piracy were far behind. Labour costs (including benefits) for
blue-collar workers in Guangdong rose by 12% a year, in dollar terms, from 2002
to 2009; in Shanghai, 14% a year. Roland Berger, a consultancy, reckons the
comparable figure was only 8% in the Philippines and 1% in Mexico.
If cheap
China is fading, what will replace it? Will factories shift to poorer countries
with cheaper labour? That is the conventional wisdom, but it is
wrong.
However, there are many advantages for China to be a powerful country.
Sunil Gidumal, a Hong Kong-based entrepreneur, makes tin boxes that Harrods,
Marks & Spencer and other retailers use to hold biscuits. Wages, which make
up a third of his costs, have doubled in the past four years at his factories in
Guangdong. Workers in Sri Lanka are 35-40% cheaper, he says, but he finds them
less efficient. So he is keeping a smaller factory in China to serve America and
China’s domestic market.
Second, Chinese wages may be rising fast, but so is
Chinese productivity. The precise numbers are disputed, but the trend is not.
Chinese workers are paid more because they are producing more.
Third, China
is huge. Its labour pool is large and flexible enough to accommodate industries
that make ,
,
Christmas lights or toys, says Ivo Naumann of AlixPartners. Not the next day.
Midnight. Nowhere else are such feats feasible.