欧债危机局势真假难辨 金价陷入纠结

本文摘自昆明中国国际旅行社
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虽然上周经历了一周大跌，但随着市场对欧盟债务危机再度恶化的担忧，本周金价又出现反弹。复杂的经济局势使金价近期陷入纠结局面。

上周，因美国就业率超出市场预期，市场认为美国经济前景稍有改善，投资者风险偏好提升，避险资产被抛售，黄金价格连续下滑5天。

上周一（1月3日），伦敦现货黄金价格下跌8.45美元/盎司，以1412.20美元/盎司收盘。跌势持续至上周五，当日收盘价为1367.95美元/盎司。全周金价下跌52.7美元/盎司，跌幅3.7%。

本周一，金价开始出现反弹。当日金价上涨7.25美元/盎司，以1375.20美元/盎司收盘，涨幅0.53%。周二，金价继续呈上涨之势。昨日，金价则在1380美元/盎司附近窄幅震荡。

“本周金价的反弹，基本面上可以从欧盟债务危机找到线索。”金顶黄金分析师聂鼎表示，“有消息称，欧盟核心成员国向葡萄牙施压，要求其寻求国际援助，以阻止欧元区债务危机蔓延。这致使市场担忧葡萄牙可能步希腊及爱尔兰的后尘，成为第三个申请援助的欧盟国家。不过，德国财政部发言人周一否认葡萄牙列入本月欧盟财长会议议题。”

威尔鑫投资的一位分析师认为，欧债危机的传言，可能是刻意渲染危机的言论。德国总理默克尔日前明确表示，不会逼迫葡萄牙接受援助。对于近期美元的走强，欧元在欧债危机阴影下的进一步走弱，都需要更多观察。

聂鼎则认为，欧债危机的担忧对金价会形成支撑，但是，从经济数据看，葡萄牙等几个国家的状况距离爆发危机的水平还有一定距离，目前市场的担忧有些过度。

“目前而言，金价的方向不是很明朗。短期仍会是在1364美元/盎司附近的支撑位上方震荡为主。”聂鼎说。

招金期货分析师梁永慧表示，全球最大黄金ETF SPDR Gold Shares最新公布数据显示，截至1月10日，其黄金持仓量为1272.68吨，较一前交易日增加1.52吨，这是该基金连续9次减仓后首次加仓。

“黄金ETF在去年10月、11月、12月连续三个月减仓，在金价1400美元/盎司以上之后，其持仓兴趣明显降低。不过，黄金场外交易保持活跃，尤其是中国的零售买盘，这表明黄金的需求依然强劲。”梁永慧说，“金价近期在1364美元/盎司附近得到支撑，我认为金价的中期底部确认完毕，本周金价的上涨显示主力有看多意愿。”

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