农行报告预测2011年中国GDP增9.5% 或加息3次

本文摘自昆明中国国际旅行社
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|xGv00|94475fed05107284c7357690cbfb693d |xGv00|706f737a6ec2a0797357cb365f9bf015 农行报告预测2011年中国GDP增9.5% 或加息3次 2011年01月13日17:58人民网曹华我要评论(0) 字号：T|T 人民网北京1月13日电(记者 曹华) 1月10日，中国农业银行战略管理部在京发布题为“转型新起点”的2011年度宏观经济报告。报告认为，2011年我国货币政策将更侧重管理通胀预期和稳定物价，财政政策侧重调整经济结构。

报告分析，2010年中国经济增速将达10.2%，全年CPI为3.3%。2011年GDP增速可能在9.5%，CPI将呈前高后稳态势，全年在4.3%左右。从拉动经济的三驾马车看，投资仍将保持较快增速，2011年投资增速预计将达到23.7%，其中战略性新兴产业投资、保障房建设投资、区域协调发展、高铁投资等转型性投资将成为投资增长的新动力；消费有望温和加速，预计2011年全年消费名义增速为18.5%。贸易发展将更趋平衡，预计2011年出口增速为16.1%。

报告预测，人民币仍将保持小幅渐进升值态势，预计2011年人民币对美元升值4%到6%。2010年，前11个月人民币新增贷款累计已经达到7.44万亿元，2010年人民币贷款增量可能达到8万亿元左右，在稳健货币政策导向下，2011年信贷增量在7到7.5万亿元之间的可能性较大。

报告称，2011年可能通过2到3次加息50到75个基点，将上调3至5次法定存款准备金率150至250个基点。

报告认为，“十二五”期间，中国经济将进入转型加速期，我国内外部环境的变化将对经济现在的高增长速度提出挑战。受要素价格成本提高、企业生产和居民生活成本提高、企业投资需求的降低等因素影响，中国经济潜在增长速度将从目前的9%左右，温和下降到8%左右。

农行战略管理部的报告预测未来几年全球经济将呈现“四R”特征，即全球经济复苏放缓(Recovery)、全球经济再平衡(Rebalancing)、全球经济格局重构(Restructure)和全球再通胀(Reflation)。

易纲：“十一五”央行积极参与全球经济治理
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