HONG KONG, Jan. 11 (Xinhua) -- The University of Hong Kong on Monday projected a growth of 4 percent to 5 percent for Hong Kong's economy in 2010, with a growth of 5.0 percent in the first quarter, but said it was no cause for celebration.
The real gross domestic product of Hong Kong, even with a growth of around 5 percent sustained throughout 2010, shall only be able to rebound back to "the pre-crisis level in 2008," said Alan Siu, executive director of the university's Hong Kong Institute of Economics and Business Strategy.
The quarterly economic forecasts, released by the APEC Studies Program of the institute
Concrete Blade, estimated that the Hong Kong economy would grow by 0.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009, but would contract by 3.2 percent for the full year.
The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) government in November revised its full-year economic forecasts upward to a contraction of 3.3 percent.
The HKU forecast for the fourth quarter represented a downward revision from the university's previous forecast of 1.0 percent released in October.
Siu said the strong rebound expected in the first quarter, from a very weak first quarter in 2009, should not be interpreted as a sign of robust growth, but rather as further evidence for the tepid recovery started in the second half of last year.
The performance of the Hong Kong economy largely depends on external demand, which was expected to rebound mildly in 2010, he said.
The exports of Hong Kong was estimated to fall by 0.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009, and by 12.1 percent for the full year. A reversal to positive growth of 10.8 percent was expected in the first quarter of 2010, HKU said.
Unemployment rate was expected to drop slightly to 5.0 percent in the first quarter of 2010. CPI inflation was forecast to increase, with headline inflation estimated to be 0.7 percent in the first quarter.
Siu said there were risks to the economic recovery of Hong Kong , including carry trade and the real condition of the United States housing market.
A double-dip recession, though "unlikely
Concrete Blade, is a possibility," he said.
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