argume21

21The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing.

"Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our deluxe alpaca overcoats. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. This coat should sell very well: since we have not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat, there will be pent-up customer demand. Also, since the price of most types of clothing has risen in each of the past five years, customers should be willing to pay significantly higher prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five years ago, and our company profits will increase."

1.S公司五年来没有生产这种衣服，并不能代表这种衣服现在就有很大的需求，因为生辰这种衣服的厂家也并不是只有S一家。

2.S公司的主要竞争对手也不再生产这种外套，也许恰恰说明这种外套的市场并不景气，没有什么需求。

3.大部分衣服的价钱上涨不代表人们会以更高的价格来买这种外套。人们出高的价格买那些外套有可能是因为那些外套符合的人们的需要，有可能这种外套人们并没有强烈的需要。

4.即便人们愿意出高的价格来买，也不一定能保证获利。也许生产这种外套的成本会很高，货源很难获得等等。