Argu15

15The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.

"Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company."

1.调查类错误，80%是概数，没有具体说明survey的人数，而且还是回复人数的80%,即便调查的人数很多，做出回复的人数也可能很少。

2.没有证据表明脂肪卡路里是人们选择食品的唯一选择，虽然人们有降低食品卡路里的愿望，但是并不能说明人们就不会选择高脂肪卡路里的食品，还有诸如口味等多种因素影响人们的选择，to desire and to do are two different concepts,Many people desire to lose weight through a balanced diet,but they keep eating what they like.

3.因为那些旧的牛奶商目前生产的食品中含有高脂肪卡路里，所以这些厂商的市场将会减小，但是作者没有考虑这些厂商目前是否正在研发低脂肪卡路里的产品等因素。

4.没有证据表明高脂肪卡路里，就是不健康的。所以有可能OD的食品是健康的，也许会有机会获得更大的发展。

5.仅仅通过说明OD的食品含有高脂肪卡路里，就得出结论：股东应该卖出他们的股份。这显然是不充分的。只有在充分调查OD过去相当长时间股价下跌，才能得出这样的结论。