argu13

13.The following appeared in a memo from the chief executive of a video game company.

"We have recently been offered the opportunity to buy the rights to produce a video game based on the soon-to-be-published children's book "Squirrel Power," by Peter Wood. While the cost of the rights is substantial and will place economic constraints on our company in the short-term, there are two reasons that the purchase of these rights will undoubtedly be a wise investment. First, Wood's last three books have been best sellers and the movie based on his first book was highly profitable. Second, the popular characters and story line in "Squirrel Power" will save us time in developing our video game, thereby reducing our costs."

1.过去的三本书畅销并不能代表这本书也畅销，典型的外推类错误。

2.即使这本书畅销，那也只是书籍畅销，并不能说明根据这本书的内容做成的游戏也会畅销。有可能人们只是喜欢阅读纸的书籍，而不愿意去玩游戏。

3.节约了时间并不代表能够节约成本，也许恰恰需要更大的成本来实现时间的节约。

4.作为一项投资，分析利润是一个盈利和成本的问题，没有明确的给出这两方面的分析，就急于得出结论。