argu33

33. The following report appeared in an archaeology journal.

"The discovery of distinctively shaped ceramic pots at various prehistoric sites scattered over a wide area has led archaeologists to ask how the pots were spread. Some believe the pot makers migrated to the various sites and carried the pots along with them; others believe the pots were spread by trade and their makers remained in one place. Now, analysis of the bones of prehistoric human skeletons can settle the debate: high levels of a certain metallic element contained in various foods are strongly associated with people who migrated to a new place after childhood. Many of the bones found near the pots at a few sites showed high levels of the metallic element. Therefore, it must be that the pots were spread by migration, not trade."

在广泛区域分散分布的很多史前遗迹发现的形状独特的陶壶导致考古学家提出疑问：这些壶是如何流传的？有些人相信壶的制造者迁移到别的地区并把壶随之带来；另一些人相信壶是通过贸易流传的，而它们的制造者仍然留在一个地方。现在，对于史前人类骨骼的分析可以解决这个争论：在多种食物中都含有的某种金属元素的高含量与那些成年后移居到新地方的人有很高的关联性。在一些遗迹的壶附近发现的很多骨头都显示出这种金属元素的高含量。因此，这些壶肯定是通过迁移而不是贸易来流传的。

 

1.对于史前人类骨骼的分析没有提供足够的证据来证明这个判断依据的正确性。

2.高相关性不代表一定的因为关系，所以高含量也未必能肯定是通过迁移而来的。

3.非此即彼类错误，有可能除了这两种可能性外，还有第三种可能性。例如是通过当地人直接制造的。