Who says the British don't understand the art of coalition government?
Many normally expert observers from abroad, especially some who should have known better on fixed-income markets, believed the administration emanating from the U.K.'s inconclusive parliamentary elections in May would be short-lived and unstable. In fact, as it approaches the milestone of three months in office, the Conservative-Liberal Democrat government under Tory Prime Minister David Cameron is starting to look remarkably successful.
Of course, it's still a bit early to give a long-term verdict. But the fresh-faced, previously untried Cameron seems to have transmogrified into a figure of genuine prime ministerial quality with astounding speed. Particularly in economic policy, the unlikely-looking Cameron-led team seems to be settling into a sustainable groove that should produce a solid performance for some years to come.
What does the future hold? I am bold enough to venture three predictions.
First, the U.K. government will not fall apart during the five-year term. Because the British Conservatives failed to win a majority in the May poll, and the Lib Dems also did less well than expected, the two governing parties both need each other. They have overturned their mutual pre-election suspicion and have learned how to get on with each other.
The Liberals, of course, might get fed up with cooperating with the Tories and could be tempted to desert the government at some stage.
The reason might be because of a feeling that their policies in areas like Europe (where the Lib Dems have a generally positive view) or nuclear energy (where they are highly reticent) were being ignored. If that happened, though, they would probably be punished by the electorate for plunging the country into political instability -- and would likely suffer a setback in the ensuing emergency elections, that would bring their score below even the levels of three months ago. So
red the Lib Dems seem condemned to stick limpet-like to the Tories.
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